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research: preserve consolidated method-development evidence - #296

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mattmre wants to merge 39 commits into
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research: preserve consolidated method-development evidence#296
mattmre wants to merge 39 commits into
mainfrom
codex/prime-ring-onion-method-dev

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@mattmre

@mattmre mattmre commented Aug 10, 2026

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Summary

This draft preservation PR retains the completed dual-Spark campaign alongside
the prior consolidated method-development history:

  • a real pinned Qwen3.5-2B/Qwen-Scope SAE integration smoke;
  • the RB-15 matched distribution-by-nonlinearity factorial and negative result;
  • RB-13 Wave 0A v8 SELECT/REPORT evidence plus the failed-closed v7 quarantine;
  • updated findings, progress, task plan, and next-session boundaries.

This is not approved for merge. docs/next-session.md is truthfully
BLOCKED by three unrelated expired Carried Debt rows: CD-MLR-01,
CD-R13-01, and CD-R16-01. No operator override is requested or implied.

Results

Qwen-Scope

The real GBA1 smoke passed in 19.51 seconds at approximately 4.49 GiB peak RSS
and 3.62 GiB peak reserved CUDA memory. The frozen layer/tensor/SAE/top-k and
two-pass repeatability contracts passed. This proves integration only, not
model-quality, training, retrieval, steering, chelation, cost, or novelty
benefit.

RB-15

Run IDs 7 and 11 each completed 170 cells, 2,040,000 RK4 steps, and 8,332
resource checks. Both retained
FACTORIAL_KILLED_ON_FROZEN_SYNTHETIC_GATES. Mean distributed Duffing gain
passed, while interaction, worst-case excess, hysteresis, and settling failed.

RB-13 Wave 0A

SELECT and REPORT each retain 12 verified synthetic entries and verify
cross-phase:

  • PRW-EK0: REQUIRE_COMPATIBILITY_AND_MIGRATION_DESIGN;
  • PRW-BIL1: REDUCE_TO_PAIRED_BOOLEAN_UNION;
  • PRW-SPU0: ORDINARY_FACTORIZATION_EQUIVALENCE;
  • PRW-VAR1: cross-phase null killed; route the smooth method only to the
    declared state subproblem.

The v7 SELECT attempt remains quarantined with status=INVALID_RUN and
failure_category=RESOURCE_OR_DEADLINE; it is not a campaign result. All RB-13
outcomes remain synthetic, non-independent-label evidence with scientific and
novelty claims UNCONFIRMED.

Validation

  • Aggregate focused suite: 130 tests passed, one platform-specific skip.
  • Ruff and cached diff hygiene passed.
  • Qwen copied evidence: ARCHIVED_COPY_VERIFIED.
  • RB-13 SELECT/REPORT and cross-phase archives verified.
  • Both RB-15 manifests independently verified.
  • Scoped secret scan found no password, token, API key, private key, SSH
    credential, private user path, or local IP in the staged delta.
  • DeepSeek was restored: both pinned containers run, /health returns 200,
    /v1/models advertises deepseek-v4-flash-0731, a real completion returned
    RESTORED, and running/waiting returned to zero.
  • Fresh aggregate adversarial review: BHS Tier B 100/none for this delta.
  • Tier-C block check: BLOCKED/FAIL as designed due the pre-existing debts.

Brutal Honesty

Not established: production RAG behavior, training, recall/cost/speed benefit,
causal intervention utility, held-out task improvement, or novelty. RB-15 is a
bounded source-inspired analogue. RB-13 Wave 0A does not validate the broader
evidence-kernel architecture. Archive custody roots are not signatures or host
attestation. This PR does not repair the expired repository-level debt.

Visibility: hidden method-development code, protocols, and artifacts only; no
production UI/API/release activation.

EVIDENCE: retained under artifacts/method-dev/qwen-scope-real-spark-smoke/, artifacts/method-dev/rb13-wave0a/, and artifacts/method-dev/rb15-distribution-nonlinearity-factorial/.
SMOKE: real pinned Qwen/SAE run PASS; exact DeepSeek service restoration PASS; no production CHELATEDAI utility smoke claimed.
BHS_SELF_DRAFT: 100
BHS_SELF_DRAFT_AGENT: /root
BHS_TIER_B: 100
BHS_TIER_B_AGENT: /root/spark_campaign_release_review
BHS_TIER_B_SEVERITY: none
BHS_OFFICIAL: 100
CARRY_FORWARD: CD-MLR-01, CD-R13-01, CD-R16-01; resolve before merge, then preregister a held-out real-model causal intervention with matched controls.
DEFERRED_SCOPE: production utility, causal benefit, and novelty evaluation.
LOOP_ITERATIONS: 3
OPERATOR_OVERRIDE: none

mattmre and others added 30 commits July 13, 2026 23:55
…2-01

Re-runs the SciFact + NFCorpus query-encoder-swap campaigns on post-#276 main
(H1 fix: baseline no longer sees the C3a build-time bounded adapter) and
regenerates both auto-generated result docs. Also exercises the real
all-mpnet-base-v2 swap backend on the cached 3090, closing the two open debt rows.

EVIDENCE: experiment_runs/drift-recovery/swap/swap-campaign-manifest-2026-06.json
  (config.swap_model == all-mpnet-base-v2, record_type == drift_recovery_swap_campaign);
  regenerated docs/drift-recovery-swap-results-2026-06.md +
  docs/drift-recovery-swap-nfcorpus-results-2026-06.md.
SMOKE (floor-tier): H1-fix regression gate PASSED - C3a baseline == C0/C2/C2O/C4a
  per seed on both datasets (SciFact seed-42 all 0.793459; NFCorpus seed-42 all
  0.555004); scripts/check_block_flag.py -> CLEAR, 0 carried debt rows;
  test_query_encoder_drift.TestQueryEncoderDriftRealModelSmoke (CHELATED_RUN_REAL_MODEL_TESTS=1)
  -> Ran 1 test, OK (real backend init logged).

CD-H1-01 CLOSED: both docs regenerated; stale-C3a supersession banner dropped
  (intended end state). Contamination signal was on NFCorpus (old C3a baselines
  differed, now match); SciFact C3a baseline was already clean pre-re-run.
  Fresh C3a finals small vs old (SciFact 3-seed ~0.157/0.161/0.164 vs 0.159;
  NFCorpus 3-seed mean 0.0524 vs 0.0535). C0/C2/C2O finals bit-identical; C4a
  finals show small re-run variance (SciFact seed-42 0.2359->0.2363; NFCorpus
  mean 0.0543->0.0529) - run noise, not the H1 baseline signal.
CD-A2-01 CLOSED: real swap path run through QueryEncoderDrift._backend in the
  production campaign driver + opt-in gated smoke passed; default-CI skip remains
  intentional (17-min HF hang).

## Brutal Honesty
- No new L1/L4/L8: no production code changed; docs + evidence artifacts only.
- HYGIENE (disclosed): untracked 22 NFCorpus per-run JSONs (25 MB) that PR #275
  force-committed; same class as the already-gitignored SciFact per-run files.
  Only the 14.5 KB summary manifests (which carry the doc-source rows) stay
  tracked. Removes 25 MB of regenerated blobs from the tracked tree going
  forward (prior blobs remain in #275 history) and makes NFCorpus consistent
  with SciFact tracking policy.
- L5 (disclosed, pre-existing): the real-model swap smoke is opt-in
  (CHELATED_RUN_REAL_MODEL_TESTS=1), not default-CI, to avoid a 17-min HF hang;
  the real path is now covered by the recorded campaign artifact + this manual
  gated run, not by default CI.
- SMOKE tier: floor (regression parity + block-flag + gated smoke), not a new
  end-to-end fixture; the campaign itself is the end-to-end evidence.

BHS_SELF_DRAFT: 100
CARRY_FORWARD: none
DEFERRED_SCOPE: H5 post-bank verdict (separate PR); H4 ablation (separate)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…lation

Runs the merged H5 post-bank head-to-head driver (#290) and the H4 compound_cycles
knob (#291) on the query-encoder-swap arena. Rung-13/14 runtime evidence for the
lattice program.

EVIDENCE: docs/drift-recovery-post-bank-headtohead-results-2026-06.md (SciFact),
  docs/drift-recovery-post-bank-headtohead-nfcorpus-results-2026-06.md (NFCorpus),
  docs/drift-recovery-h4-compound-cycles-ablation-2026-07.md; summary manifests +
  H4 run JSONs under experiment_runs/drift-recovery/{post-bank-headtohead*,h4-compound}/.
SMOKE (floor-tier): python -m unittest test_post_bank_head_to_head -> OK (pre-run);
  the campaign itself is the end-to-end evidence.

VERDICT (honest negative): LIVING BANK WINS = False on both datasets. The gate is
  C5 (living/annealed bank) must beat BOTH C5s (frozen static bank) AND C5r (one-shot
  router).
  - SciFact: C5 == C5s 0.131135 (bit-identical); C5r one-shot 0.180862 beats living.
  - NFCorpus: C5 == C5s 0.046389; living edges C5r 0.045817 but ties static.
  The living/annealed lifecycle adds nothing over a frozen static bank; a one-shot
  router is competitive-or-better. Living bank NON-PROMOTED (docs/next-session.md
  Disposition). C5s is the honest post-bank baseline if any is kept.
H4 (single-seed SciFact C4a seed 42): compound_cycles True 0.005258 vs False
  0.236297 (~45x collapse). Compounding is a rejected design; idempotent one-shot
  fixed point is correct. Quantifies the paper Section 5.2 overshoot note.

## Brutal Honesty
- No new L1/L4/L8: no production code changed; runs merged drivers + records results.
- L5 (disclosed): H4 is a single-seed (42) ablation; direction is unambiguous
  (~45x) but the exact magnitude is one seed, stated in the H4 doc.
- Manifests-only tracking (consistent with the L1 hygiene decision): H5 per-run
  JSONs stay gitignored; the small summary manifests (which carry the doc-source
  rows) + the two <1 MB H4 run JSONs are the tracked evidence.
- Verdict is from the real GPU run, not asserted from the driver alone; every
  number in the docs traces to a manifest row.

BHS_SELF_DRAFT: 100
CARRY_FORWARD: none (living-bank line closed as non-promoted, not debt)
DEFERRED_SCOPE: L3 docs-truth sync (separate commit, same PR)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…rungs

Main advanced 33 commits since the vision/roadmap landed, but ROADMAP_EXECUTION.md
Phase II still read as all-future work (no Status column). Syncs the roadmap +
CHANGELOG to git-verified reality.

EVIDENCE: per-step status verified from git log / git show on the merged PRs and
  targeted greps for the open steps (recorded in
  docs/waypoint-research-2026-06-09/panel/l3-docs-truth-draft.md).
SMOKE (docs-only): no code changed; ruff/tests unaffected.

Changes:
- ROADMAP_EXECUTION.md Phase II table gains a Status column + a git-verified status
  snapshot: rungs 9-12 DONE, 13 PARTIAL (post-bank prune/re-anneal only, NOT
  isomer/convergence -> Evidence-DAG prune), 14 apparatus DONE with the H5
  living-bank verdict a hard negative, 15-17 OPEN.
- CHANGELOG: apparatus-merged bullet (rungs 10-14 PRs) + still-OPEN bullet
  (15/16/17); the stale "Phase II execution program" Added line corrected from
  "all future" to the delivered/open split.

## Brutal Honesty
- No delivery claimed without a merged PR. Grep-verified the three OPEN steps are
  genuinely unimplemented: no PyG/DGL (15); adapter_router + QuantizationPromotionGate
  exist but are NOT integrated as one retrieval-fitness steering plane (16); no
  pool-shard parity via block_graph (17).
- Step 13 is honestly marked PARTIAL, not DONE — the delivered post-bank lifecycle
  is not the isomer/convergence->DAG-prune the original exit criteria named. Chair
  must re-scope or implement before step 13 reads green.
- Step 10 DONE = the rung-10 control-plane DoD, NOT a claim that historical
  SHIM-CD-01/02/06 rows are CLOSED (called out inline).
- Step 11 schedule ownership is split across two modules (#260 engine + #280
  post-bank), not the single-module monopoly the original exit text implied; marked
  DONE-for-lattice-rungs with that caveat inline.
- Older [Unreleased] Findings (Phase I / turn 3171 / "SHIM on hold") are now stale
  vs lattice delivery; left in place and flagged for a separate hygiene refresh
  rather than silently rewritten in this commit.

BHS_SELF_DRAFT: 100
CARRY_FORWARD: none
DEFERRED_SCOPE: refresh of the older stale [Unreleased] Findings bullets (separate hygiene pass)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…es L1 claim)

Tier B (combined review of this slice) caught that L1 (2b0fa04) claimed "only the
summary manifests stay tracked / NFCorpus consistent with SciFact policy" but two
#275-era logs remained tracked under experiment_runs/drift-recovery/swap-nfcorpus/:
campaign.log (~191 KB) and campaign-completion.log (~115 KB). SciFact's swap tree
tracks 0 logs, so those two were the last inconsistency. Untracking them here makes
the L1 hygiene claim actually true at PR granularity.

EVIDENCE: git ls-files experiment_runs/drift-recovery/swap/*.log -> 0 (SciFact);
  the two NFCorpus logs are covered by .gitignore (experiment_runs/) and will not
  re-appear. No other file touched.
SMOKE: scripts/check_block_flag.py -> CLEAR (unchanged).

## Brutal Honesty
- L13-light correction disclosed by Tier B, not self-caught in L1 - recorded here
  transparently rather than by silently weakening the L1 prose.
- No production code; no manifests/docs/NDCG changed; only two log blobs untracked.

BHS_SELF_DRAFT: 100
CARRY_FORWARD: none

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@mattmre mattmre changed the title research: add bounded RB-14 observability harness research: preserve consolidated method-development evidence Aug 13, 2026
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